In a Nov. 8 research note, Adam Schatzker, a research analyst with
Research Capital Corp. advised that base and critical metals explorer
and developer Emerita Resources Corp. (EMO:TSX.V; EMOTF:OTCMKTS; LLJ:FSE) provided an update to its investors
on the status of ongoing court cases relative to its operations in Spain.
Schatzker advised that on November 8, 2021, Emerita Resources issued a press release offering some insight into the actions from the Spanish courts. According to the company's interpretation of events, it appears that each of the separate independent criminal and administrative court proceeding are progressing positively and seem to be heading towards promising outcomes for Emerita.
Research Capital commented that since its last research note, Emerita's shares have performed extremely well and have risen in price by 27% to a value exceeding the firm's target price. Research Capital stated that "it believes the market is discounting a near 100% probability that EMO wins the tender for Aznalcóllar." Research Capital stated that it remains steadfast in assuming a slightly more conservative probability of 80%.
The analyst noted that should the company be successful in winning the tender and is then able to provide further specific details regarding its plans for the asset, it will change its valuation methodology from EV/lb to a discounted cash flow (DCF) modeling calculation. Research Capital anticipates that the DCF approach will yield a significantly higher value for the enterprise than the current EV/lb forecasts.
The analyst pointed out that if and when EMO is awarded the Aznalcóllar concession, it will be a very favorable catalyst for EMO's share price. The analyst remarked that it is for this reason that Research Capital is maintaining its Speculative Buy rating despite the fact that the price target is now below the current share price.
The news release from Emerita indicated that the criminal case proceedings are moving forward and the ruling form the administrative court is expected soon. The announcement from Emerita Resources mentioned that "the Provincial Court No. 3 of Seville has determined that it is appropriate to commence the oral trial in the upper courts and according to the company's Spanish counsel, this is a positive development and indicates the case is moving forward and that the court is not awaiting the outcome of any appeals from the defense."
The company is hopeful as it believes that these developments appear to suggest a positive ruling in the case for which is a on a swift pace for conclusion after all trial documents are submitted to a judge and a date is set for a final ruling as to verdicts and any respective penalties.
In a separate civil case, the company stated that "the Administrative Court of Andalucia has notified Emerita that it will be making a ruling in the administrative case initiated by EMO in 2015 regarding the awarding of the tender." The results from this litigation may serve to provide the firm with another potential path to being awarded Aznalcóllar.
Research Capital stated that the update from the company did not present any materially different information than was previously provided; however, it did offer a better understanding of the timelines for decisions in the cases.
Research Capital advised that based upon the updated status in the proceedings and respective timelines for resolution, "we believe the probability that EMO wins the Aznalcóllar tender is quite high and our target price assumes an 80% chance of success."
The analyst noted that upcoming catalysts for the company to watch for include drill results from Infanta and Romanera and the outcome of the current court proceedings surrounding the potential acquisition of the Aznalcóllar Project.
Research Capital Corp. stated that is maintaining its "Speculative Buy" rating and CA$3.25 per share target price for Emerita Resources Corp. even though Emerita's shares were trading above its price target price at CA$3.87 when the research note was written. The firm said it is maintaining its price target due to the pending legal issues.
The company's shares trade on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol EMO and last closed for trading at CA$3.30/share on November 9, 2021.
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